How (un)restrictive are we? : 'Adjusted' and 'expected' asylum recognition rates in Europe (WODC)
This study, published by the "Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek- en Documentatiecentrum" (Dutch Ministry for Security and Justice), focuses on asylum recognition rates in the EU/EFTA area.
There are large international differences in the percentage of asylum requests that States in the EU/EFTA area recognise. This study uses a statistical method to (a) calculate adjusted recognition rates by country of asylum, net of international differences in the composition of their asylum seeker population with respect to country of origin, age and sex, and to (b) calculate expected recognition rates for countries, when each of its asylum seekers would have had exactly that probability of a positive decision that he or she would have had on average in the EU/EFTA area as a whole based on his or her nationality, age and sex.
The study shows that international differences in recognition rates become considerably smaller after adjusting for composition effects. At the same time, substantial differences persist, especially—but not exclusively—when positive decisions on national grounds count as recognitions. When only the positive decisions on international grounds—i.e. on the basis of the Geneva Conventions or the European Convention on Human Rights—count as recognitions, the EU/EFTA countries with the highest adjusted recognition rates still recognize approximately twice as many asylum applications than countries with the lowest adjusted recognition rates.
The full study as well as a short summary (in English and in Dutch) is available here.