The ICMPD Migration Outlook 2023 forecasts inter alia :

• A possible second wave of arrivals from Ukraine: The war in Ukraine has shown little sign of ending soon, with 18 million Ukrainians considered to be in urgent need of humanitarian support inside the country. ICMPD estimates that sudden inflows could reach up to four million people, severely straining Europe’s capacity to process and integrate new arrivals.
   
• The work on instruments to address the instrumentalization of migration: In a move to further agitate Europe’s migration worries, the Russian government has announced it will increase the number of flights from North Africa and the Middle East to Kaliningrad, which borders Poland. This will likely result in an uptick of migrants attempting to enter the EU from a different route to the usual Mediterranean entry points.
   
• Economic downturn, labour shortages and the discussion on legal migration channels in Europe: The worsening economic downturn in Europe will not offset labour shortages, and will hasten EU discussions around legal migration options, including temporary work visas and mobility partnerships, like those concluded in 2022 between some EU states and third countries like India and Morocco.

Other migration issues to look out for in 2023 include:

• High migration pressures in times of global polycrisis
• A focus on the Western Balkans and Central Mediterranean migratory routes
• The labour market integration of Ukrainians and exit strategies from temporary protection
• The debate over visa regimes in the EU and beyond
• The effects of the global supply and cost-of-living crisis on migration
• A growing number of migration partnerships between EU member states and non-European partners
• The last opportunity to finalise the Pact on Migration and Asylum

For further information, read the full Migration Outlook 2023 above or click on this page.