Frontex Annual Risk Analysis (ARA) 2015

The Frontex Annual Risk Analysis (ARA) presents a European summary of trends and developments along the external borders of the Member States of the EU.

Frontex has published its annual risk analysis report for 2015. This edition concentrates on the current scope of Frontex operational activities, which focus on irregular migration at the external borders of EU Member States and Schengen Associated Countries.

The report is structured as followed:

  1. Overview of the situation before the border, based on data for Schengen uniform visas;
  2. Situation along the external border, based on trends in regular passenger flows, detections of illegal border-crossing, clandestine entries and refusals of entry;
  3. Update on the situation regarding persons staying illegally in the EU and third-country nationals returned.

Main conclusions :

  • Detections of illegal border-crossing reached a new record, with more than 280.000 detections;
  • The profile of detected irregular migrants remained relatively unchanged compared to 2013, being mostly adult males;
  • Most migrants were detected in the Central Mediterranean area, where detections totaled over 170.000;
  • Detections of clandestine entry in vehicles increased strongly from 599 in 2013 to 3.052 in 2014;
  • The facilitation of irregular migration remains a significant threat to the EU external borders;
  • Member States reported more than 114.000 refusals of entry issued at the external borders of the EU, a decrease of 11% compared to 2013;
  • There were 441.780 detections of irregular stay in the EU, which represents an increase compared to the year before;
  • A total of 252.003 third-country nationals were subject to an obligation to leave the EU and 161.309 third-country nationals effectively returned to countries outside the EU;
  • There is an underlying threat of terrorism-related travel movements especially due to the appeal of the Syrian conflict to both idealist and radicalized youths.

The report is available here (only in English).